Here are five things you need to know as speculation about Kim’s health continues.ġ. Instability in North Korea would have immediate and long-term implications for the region and U.S.-China competition. The situation is dire in North Korea, where there is no clear successor to Kim. As in medieval monarchies, succession crises become the norm, and obscure figures or new dynasties rise as a result: Since World War II, no family dictatorship has ever managed to pass power for a third time. But, as I found in my recent study of all hereditary autocracies since World War II, passing power is particularly difficult in family dictatorships, where the ability to find an individual who is both competent and enjoys elites’ support is relatively low, due to the small pool of candidates. The hereditary nature of North Korea’s government means that internal stability is heavily reliant on the smooth succession to a new leader-which likely means one of Kim’s family members. If Kim dies, or is even incapacitated, it poses a serious threat to the regime. officials and the intelligence community have received reports about Kim’s troubled health, but, given the closed nature of North Korea, it is impossible to accurately assess the severity of Kim’s condition. Panic has reportedly broken out in North Korea’s capital of Pyongyang, where residents are buying up necessities in preparation for the worst.Īs a result, there is much speculation that the North Korean leader is gravely ill. On Saturday, April 25, he even missed the annual parade celebrating the founding of the armed forces. Since then, Kim has not made any public appearances he was absent from April 15 celebrations of North Korea’s most important holiday, the birthday of his grandfather and founder of the regime, Kim Il Sung. North Korea’s dictator, Kim Jong Un, was reported to have had a cardiovascular procedure on April 12, treating a health condition allegedly stemming from “excessive smoking, obesity, and overwork,” according to one South Korean publication.
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